Special Sections 2012 Storm Guide 2012 : Page 2
2 | SUNDAY , MAY 27 , 2012 STORM GUIDE OCALA STAR-BANNER | www.ocala.com Inside 4 PREPARATION: Know what to do to prepare for the season. UTILITIES: Companies around the state are ready Hurricane experts calling for a below-average season By Joe Callahan Staff writer 7 for the worst. LOSING POWER: What do you do and how do you 8 9 9 stay safe when the lights go out. NEW RULES: Storm shutters, not tape, provide N the best protection for windows. LESSONS LEARNED: Storm conference views Hurricane Andrew’s legacy. TRACKING MAP: Follow the path of the storm as 12 it approaches. PETS: Keep your four-legged friends safe. 14 15 17 THE EXITS: Some places are better than others for evacuation. HELPING OTHERS: Residents with special needs should prepare in advance. READY TO GO: Local Red Cross has a full-time 19 staff and a truck. GADGETS: Make sure you have the latest storm 20 supplies. NEW WIND SPEEDS: Hurricane experts change 23 23 the scale. SENIORS: Guide helps the elderly and their caregivers prepare for disaster. COVER ART: Illustration by Sean Ochal/Staff. J IM R OSS Editor S HARON S ULLIVAN Copy editor ational hurricane experts are calling for a below-average hurricane season, which begins Friday, though of fi cials warn that residents should not let their guards down based on the preliminary predic-tions. Researchers at Colorado State University, which has issued annual hurri-cane forecasts for 29 years, believe the atmo-spheric and ocean signa-tures that drive hurricane formation are not as prominent this year. Forescasters with the school’s Tropical Meteo-rology Project believe the 2012 hurricane season could be half as active as last year, when 19 named storms — seven of which hurricanes — were recorded. Last year, the team predicted 17 named storms and nine hurri-canes. The average number of named storms for the last three decades is 12, with 6.5 of those hurricanes, according to the team’s research. Colorado State’s Philip Klotzbach and William Gray predicted that 2012 will feature 10 named storms, including four hurricanes, during the 2012 season, which ends Nov. 30. This year’s below-aver-age prediction makes National Weather Service of fi cials nervous. That’s because they expect many people to let their guard down. Steve Letro, meteorolo-gist in charge of the National Weather Service in Jacksonville, said Researchers at Colorado State University believe the atmospheric and ocean signatures that drive hurricane formation are not as prominent this year. Colorado State’s forecasts are great tools when it predicts above-average activity, like from the mid-1990s through much of the 2000s. “That raised the pre-paredness awareness,” Letro said. He said numerous direct hits across the United States forced people to develop hurricane kits and buy supplies such as generators. Marion County Emer-gency Management Director Capt. Chip Wildy said, like most every year, if just one hurricane passes over Marion, it would be a memorable hurricane season. Take 1992. The fi rst hurricane of the season did not hit until late August. And that was Andrew, one of the strongest storms to ever hit the United States. “There may be only a few storms out there but what if it comes your way?” Wildy noted. “It only takes one.” This year’s forecast calls for only four hurricanes, two of which rated a major hurricane — Category 3 and above. This year’s forecast also calls for below-average number of days that such storms will be on the move. Of fi cials predict that there will be 40 named storm, 16 hurri-cane and three major hurricane days. CSU’s experts say there is a 42 percent chance the U.S. East Coast will be struck by a major hurri-cane, which is below the 52 percent century average. The Florida Peninsula has a 24 percent chance, down from 31 percent. There have been changes to hurricane preparedness procedures and scales. Of fi cials say tape is no longer needed to protect windows, and they tweaked the major hurricane intensity scale in some categories by 1 mph. On the Saf fi r-Simpson hurricane scale, a Catego-ry 4 hurricane now has wind speeds between 130-156 mph, which in turn affected the wind scale for the other two major hurricane catego-ries. Category 3 is now 111-129 mph, while a Category 5 is 157 mph and above. Meanwhile, Wildy said his of fi ce is currently tweaking its shelter plans after several rules were changed. He also said this will be the fi rst year for a new computer system at the Emergency Operations Center. The system will track needs — such as the need for more shelter cots and debris removal compa-nies, for example — put into the system by differ-ent agencies. The computer will match needs with available services. Expert predictions for the 2012 hurricane season: Colorado State University Tropical Meteorology Project ■ The Atlantic will churn up 10 named storms ■ Four hurricanes ■ Two hurricanes will reach major status (winds higher than 110 mph) ■ The total energy from all storms that form is expected to be about 25 percent down from what is considered average. The Weather Chan-nel ■ Eleven named storms ■ Six hurricanes ■ Two major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher) Accu-Weather ■ Twelve named tropical storms ■ Five named hurricanes ■ Two major hurricanes FYI ■ In 2011, seven hur-ricanes and an addi-tional 13 tropical storms formed, one of which was not named because it was recorded as a tropical storm after a reanalysis. ■ The long-term average (1950-2011) is 12 named storms per season, with seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes. ■ The average for the current active era (1995-2011) is 15 named storms, eight hur-ricanes and four major hurricanes. — Sources: Staff, Sara-sota Herald-Tribune
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