Automated Builder September 2009 : Page 22

In Plant Carlson's Column The Gathering Evidence; The Game Is On; Are You In? By Don O. Carlson, Editor and Publisher There is more evidence that the housing industry in the United States is back on track to the solid health that will dig us out of the recession. Even the most dire of one-armed economists will admit that it was the collapse of the U.S. housing market which gave us the worldwide recession and it will be the strength of the revitalized housing market that will put us fi rmly on the prosperity highway. Let’s take a look at the gathering evidence: August 26, 2009. USA Today reported, “Signs of life in the overall economy as housing prices rose 2.9% from the fi rst quarter to the second - - the fi rst quarterly increase in three years.” The same paper reported that consumer confi - dence rebounded. Consumer confi dence was said to rise to 54.1 in August up from 47.4 in July. August 27,2009. AP announced, “Consumers and busi- nesses went on a big ticket spending spree in July sending home, car and equipment sales soaring by the largest amount in years. New home sales jumped almost 10% from June while orders for long lasting goods such as appliances and airplanes went up almost 5% in July, the third increase in the past four months.” AP reported that Nigel Gault, chief U.S. economist at IHS Global Insight, said, “It looks like we’ve hit bottom and we’re now slowly trying to dig our way out.” August 27, 2009. Stephanie Armour, USA Today reporter, stated, “Sales of new homes climbed to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 433,000 in July, the highest pace since last September, according to government fi gures.” This repre- sented a 9.6% increase over the revised rate for June and better than industry analysts had expected.” Patrick Newport, IHS Global Insight, said, “It’s really good news. Inventory is down; sales are up.” He added that much of the lift may be coming from the federal tax credit of up to $8,000 for fi rst time home buyers, which won’t expire until November 30th. August 28, 2009. AP’s Allen Zibel, real estate writer, said rates on 30-year home mortgage loans were up but remained close to the record lows reached last spring. Average rates for a 30-year fi xed mortgage was 5.14%, up from 5.12% a week earlier. However, Freddie Mac stated that while rates were above the lower 4.78% hit last spring people still consider them suffi ciently attractive to be looking to buy a new home or re-fi nance the old one. ASeptember 4 report from Freddie Mac said mortgage rates dropped to 5.08% for 30-year fi xed and 4.54% for 15-year fi xed. September 2, 2009. USA Today reported manufacturing grew in August for the fi rst time in more than a year and a half suggesting “Broader than an expected recovery from the worst recession since the 1930s.” Institute for Supply Management said its much-watched manufacturing index 22 grew from July to August for the fi rst time in 19 months, rising to 52.9, the highest level since August 2007. Anything above 50 signals that manufacturing is expanding. Institute said the fi gure corresponds to overall economy growing at an annual pace of 3.7%, that’s twice as fast as economists had been predicting. September 2, 2009. FHA, according to USA Today, seemed to be on the busiest track for the year with the gov- ernment agency backing 23% of all new home mortgages. Nearly one in four of all new mortgages was being insured by FHA. From October 1, ’08 through mid-August applica- tions for FHA S.F. home mortgages were up 50% to 2.52 million from the same period a year earlier. Approvals for purchases, refi nancing and reverse mortgages rose 70% to 1.67 million. Fully 80% of the mortgages for purchasing homes went to fi rst time buyers who are drawn to the low down payment requirement of FHA starting at only 3.5%. September 3, 2009. Even the good, gray Federal Reserve Board came out with some economic optimism judging by their minutes from the August meeting. Both Federal Chair- man Big Ben Bernanke and his colleagues struck a hope- ful note about the economy’s prospects compared with the assessments they made in late June. They begin to believe that after being pounded by the recession consumer spending fi nally appeared to be leveling out, the housing market was fi rming and manufacturing was stabilizing. They added that other countries economies were improving auguring well for the sale of U.S. exports. They also continued their program to buy $1.25 trillion worth of securities issued by mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac by the end of the year, thereby enabling both government mortgage entities to fund more home mortgages. Thus, this and other reports indicated solidly that the improvement game is on to accelerate the market for the housing industry. The big question for each of our builders is, “Are you in the game?” One of our biggest dangers that the average home mar- keter has at this time is to shake the cobwebs of negativism from his thinking. Too many of us today keep repeating the same old song that we have repeated for many months and that is, “Things out there are really so rotten why do I bother?” This, of course, is a killer to end all killers for increasing our home, apartment, condo and commercial structure sales. The attitude must turn from negativism to one of inspired optimism as the housing market is starting to boom, big time, and you better get into the fray before your competition blocks you out. SEPTEMBER 2009

In Plant Carlson's Column

Don O. Carlson

The Gathering Evidence; The Game Is On; Are You In? There is more evidence that the housing industry in the United States is back on track to the solid health that will dig us out of the recession. Even the most dire of one-armed economists will admit that it was the collapse of the U.S. housing market which gave us the worldwide recession and it will be the strength of the revitalized housing market that will put us fi rmly on the prosperity highway. Let’s take a look at the gathering evidence: August 26, 2009. USA Today reported, “Signs of life in the overall economy as housing prices rose 2.9% from the fi rst quarter to the second - - the fi rst quarterly increase in three years.” The same paper reported that consumer confi - dence rebounded. Consumer confi dence was said to rise to 54. 1 in August up from 47.4 in July. August 27,2009. AP announced, “Consumers and businesses went on a big ticket spending spree in July sending home, car and equipment sales soaring by the largest amount in years. New home sales jumped almost 10% from June while orders for long lasting goods such as appliances and airplanes went up almost 5% in July, the third increase in the past four months.” AP reported that Nigel Gault, chief U.S. economist at IHS Global Insight, said, “It looks like we’ve hit bottom and we’re now slowly trying to dig our way out.” August 27, 2009. Stephanie Armour, USA Today reporter, stated, “Sales of new homes climbed to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 433,000 in July, the highest pace since last September, according to government fi gures.” This represented a 9.6% increase over the revised rate for June and better than industry analysts had expected.” Patrick Newport, IHS Global Insight, said, “It’s really good news. Inventory is down; sales are up.” He added that much of the lift may be coming from the federal tax credit of up to $8,000 for fi rst time home buyers, which won’t expire until November 30th. August 28, 2009. AP’s Allen Zibel, real estate writer, said rates on 30-year home mortgage loans were up but remained close to the record lows reached last spring. Average rates for a 30-year fi xed mortgage was 5.14%, up from 5.12% a week earlier. However, Freddie Mac stated that while rates were above the lower 4.78% hit last spring people still consider them suffi ciently attractive to be looking to buy a new home or re-fi nance the old one. A September 4 report from Freddie Mac said mortgage rates dropped to 5.08% for 30-year fi xed and 4.54% for 15-year fi xed. September 2, 2009. USA Today reported manufacturing grew in August for the fi rst time in more than a year and a half suggesting “Broader than an expected recovery from the worst recession since the 1930s.” Institute for Supply Management said its much-watched manufacturing index grew from July to August for the fi rst time in 19 months, rising to 52.9, the highest level since August 2007. Anything above 50 signals that manufacturing is expanding. Institute said the fi gure corresponds to overall economy growing at an annual pace of 3.7%, that’s twice as fast as economists had been predicting. September 2, 2009. FHA, according to USA Today, seemed to be on the busiest track for the year with the government agency backing 23% of all new home mortgages. Nearly one in four of all new mortgages was being insured by FHA. From October 1, ’08 through mid-August applications for FHA S.F. home mortgages were up 50% to 2.52 million from the same period a year earlier. Approvals for purchases, refi nancing and reverse mortgages rose 70% to 1. 67 million. Fully 80% of the mortgages for purchasing homes went to fi rst time buyers who are drawn to the low down payment requirement of FHA starting at only 3.5%. September 3, 2009. Even the good, gray Federal Reserve Board came out with some economic optimism judging by their minutes from the August meeting. Both Federal Chairman Big Ben Bernanke and his colleagues struck a hopeful note about the economy’s prospects compared with the assessments they made in late June. They begin to believe that after being pounded by the recession consumer spending fi nally appeared to be leveling out, the housing market was fi rming and manufacturing was stabilizing. They added that other countries economies were improving auguring well for the sale of U.S. exports. They also continued their program to buy $1.25 trillion worth of securities issued by mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac by the end of the year, thereby enabling both government mortgage entities to fund more home mortgages. Thus, this and other reports indicated solidly that the improvement game is on to accelerate the market for the housing industry. The big question for each of our builders is, “Are you in the game?” One of our biggest dangers that the average home marketer has at this time is to shake the cobwebs of negativism from his thinking. Too many of us today keep repeating the same old song that we have repeated for many months and that is, “Things out there are really so rotten why do I bother?” This, of course, is a killer to end all killers for increasing our home, apartment, condo and commercial structure sales. The attitude must turn from negativism to one of inspired optimism as the housing market is starting to boom, big time, and you better get into the fray before your competition blocks you out.

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